REDA BENKHADRA | Election outcomes underscore ANC’s failure to adapt and reinvent itself

The outcomes of the general elections in SA are not merely a concern for locals, but also by global observers, particularly across the African continent.

These elections, which bring SA back to the memories of those of 1994, constitute today a new era into which the country expects to enter with great uncertainty, both on the national and international level.

The decline of the ANC to 40% signals more than just a loss of electoral support; it underscores the party’s failure to adapt and reinvent itself.

The emergence of the Umkhonto weSizwe (MK) party – whose name recalls the ANC’s armed wing which received training and financial backing from North African capitals in the 1960s, has reshuffled the cards of the political landscape. Unlike past challengers like Cope in 2009, MK represents a significant disruption beyond just electoral numbers.

However, the gap between longstanding political rivals, President Cyril Ramaphosa and MK leader Jacob Zuma, will be difficult to bridge in the perspective of forming a national coalition.

These elections, and their aftermath, are particularly under scrutiny on the other side of the continent, particularly by key African Union donor states such as Algeria, Egypt and Morocco, considering a potential change in the foreign policy line, but also in view of bilateral relations and SA positions on many issues and conflicts in this region.

The ANC’s worst electoral result since the end of apartheid is not only catastrophic for the party but also for Ramaphosa who could come under pressure from the party to resign, just like his predecessors – although for different reasons. Nevertheless, the question looms whether Ramaphosa will shoulder both political and moral responsibility for the decline in the ANC’s once-robust popularity.

Although there remains a possibility for the ANC to emerge victorious in this election through coalition building, such a path is not without its pitfalls. Any such coalition would likely come at the cost of concessions to rival parties, leaving the ANC scarred from the electoral battle.

The ANC had not anticipated such a significant drop in voter support, leaving it unprepared to address challenges to Ramaphosa’s leadership or prepare a successor, but current dynamics may bring about a change that can carry the deputy president, Paul Mashatile, as a potential successor.

However, the pressures to which the party will be subject to may contribute to internal change being influenced from the outside, in particular from former comrades who have since joined the MK Party.

The future of the ANC is also dependent on the leadership’s ability to manage internal conflicts between its different factions. The liberal current which has failed to dominate the party since its creation, and softened into moderate social democrat (representing the current leading faction), is aligned with pro-business interests while showing less inclination towards radical economic reforms, would not be against the idea of allying with the official opposition, the DA

As for the left wing, historically shaped by the tripartite alliance with the SA Communist Party and Cosatu, it has a real chance of returning to power if the pressure exerted by Zuma is successful, or under a coalition with the EFF.

If the question of Palestine had little bearing on the conduct of the elections and voters’ choices, its impact on the aftermath will be great. SA’s efforts to bring the genocide case before the International Court of Justice were greatly welcomed by Arab public opinion.

The idea of ​​rallying small parties to continue to exert influence is no longer on the agenda, the ANC has no choice but to seek an ally among the opposition, while still being open to garnering support from other political groups in parliament.

The option of a coalition with the DA and the IFP to guarantee a solid majority at the national level and regain control of the provinces of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal cannot also be ruled out.

Despite being part of the multi-party charter, John Steenhuisen and Velonkosini Hlabisa left the door ajar to the ANC. However, the DA’s proximity to Western positions and its support for Israel – or at least its ambiguous position – could greatly influence the country’s foreign policy and particularly on the question of Palestine.

In light of current developments, it appears increasingly likely that the ruling party will look towards its former ANC Youth League’s president. Malema has articulated that the EFF sees the ANC as its natural coalition partner and expresses willingness to collaborate with it.

On the other hand, the ANC-EFF alliance could contribute to a further deterioration of relations with Morocco, which the ANC has been trying to improve since the elevation of diplomatic representations to the rank of embassies, and recently through automotive industry cooperation.

The prospect of a coalition with the EFF risks, according to commentators, changing SA’s foreign policy priorities.

• Benkhadra is political analyst and a human rights enthusiast. He holds an MPhil from the University of Pretoria