KATHLEEN KLAUS | Kenyan unrest could compel political shift

Sharp rises in livelihood goods, especially food and fuel, often serve as a trigger for protest and social unrest. 

There are numerous examples, from the protests in Tunisia that sparked the Arab spring to the uprisings in Chile, SA and France.

Yet like elsewhere, rising prices — and prospects of even higher costs — are only part of the story in Kenya. What seems to have motivated such widespread outrage and collective action relates to four key issues.

First, what is being taxed matters, both materially and symbolically. The proposed taxes would have affected every segment of society, but would have been most felt by poor and working-class people. The bill proposed taxing everything from income and fuel to essential items like eggs, sanitary towels and disposable diapers.

The proposed tax increases were also set to increase healthcare costs. Digital content creators would also have been affected.

The increased tax on these most intimate and essential items represents the government’s indifference towards Kenyans’ ability to live a dignified life.

Second, the government justified the tax as a way to pay down the national debt, which now stands at 68% of the GDP. Yet, for many Kenyans, addressing the deficit hinges not on taxation but on addressing corruption at every level of government, financial mismanagement and lavish consumption among political elites. This includes a deepening sense of outrage at Kenyan president William Ruto’s spending habits — such as hiring private jets for global trips, an eight-course dinner for King Charles III and a love of expensive watches and other designer goods.

Third, many Kenyans felt that the finance bill, which was passed with support of 195 out of 304 MPs on June 25, completely disregarded their humanity. In their view it also showed an inability or refusal by political elites to recognise the economic precarity, grinding poverty and everyday struggle that many experience.

In addition, the finance bill felt like betrayal for the people who voted for Ruto in the 2022 elections based on his appeals to the poor as well as promises of progressive taxation.

Fourth, protesters were also motivated by the government’s brutal attempt to repress the uprising. The resolve of many protesters deepened as the police and military became more violent — reportedly shooting live bullets and teargas into crowds. At least 13 people were reported to have been killed.

The narrative and messaging shifted in response to the state’s violence. The rallying call turned to marching for freedom and honouring Kenyans killed by the police.

Several underlying and unresolved issues help explain the power and scale of the anti-tax protests. There is a long history of the government’s disregard for Kenyan lives. Numerous social movements have captured this sentiment, especially over social media.

Perceived greed of the political class including decades of high-profile corruption scandals that go largely unchecked is an issue. Scandals that worsen national debt, but also deny Kenyans critical and promised infrastructure upgrades and improved service delivery is another.

This issue is compounded by long-standing frustration with the mismanagement of public funds, and the inability of Kenyans to hold their leaders accountable.

The protests signalled to the government and international lenders alike that there is little tolerance and political space for raising revenue through regressive taxes.

It also signals a growing public intolerance of corruption. That the protests persuaded Ruto to withdraw the Finance Bill signals an empowered and emboldened civil society — one that may be able to continue pushing for greater financial transparency and accountability.

While dramatic change is unlikely, the prospects of widespread unrest may compel political leaders to be more attuned to public interest, a shift that could eventually lead to more inclusive economic policies. — The Conversation 

• Klaus is associate professor at Uppsala University in Sweden